About this report

About this report

The EBRD seeks to foster the transition to an open market-oriented economy and to promote entrepreneurship in the economies where it invests. To perform this task effectively, the Bank needs to analyse and understand the process of transition. The purpose of the Transition Report is to advance this understanding and to share our analysis with partners.

Responsibility for the content of the report is taken by the Office of the Chief Economist. The assessments and views expressed are not necessarily those of the EBRD. All assessments and data in the online country assessments are based on information as of late October 2018.

Terms and conditions

Full terms and conditions can be found on www.ebrd.com.

Disclaimer

The contents of this publication reflect the opinions of individual authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EBRD.

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All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording, without the written permission of the copyright holder.

Such written permission must also be obtained before any part of this publication is stored in a retrieval system of any nature.

Designed and produced by Blackwood Creative Ltd and the EBRD.

Illustrations: © Blackwood Creative Ltd

Abbreviations: For charts in this Transition Report, the abbreviations used for each economy follow the ISO 3166-1 three-letter economy codes published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).

Note: The complex coding required for some of our online charts may limit their ability to export successfully. For all maps in this website, the designations employed and the presentation of material in the maps do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the EBRD concerning the legal or constitutional status of any country, territory or sea area, or concerning the delimitation of frontiers.

Note: Terms and names used in this report to refer to geographical or other territories, political and economic groupings and units, do not constitute and should not be construed as constituting an express or implied position, endorsement, acceptance or expression of opinion by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or its members concerning the status of any country, territory, grouping and unit, or delimitation of its borders, or sovereignty.

Hyperlinks to non-EBRD websites do not imply any official endorsement of or responsibility for the opinions, ideas, data or products presented at these locations, or guarantee the validity of the information provided. The sole purpose of links to non-EBRD sites is to indicate further information available on related topics.

Acknowledgements

The Transition Report was prepared by the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) of the EBRD, under the general direction of Sergei Guriev. It also includes contributions from the Office of the General Counsel (Annex 2.1) and the Economics, Policy and Governance Department (structural reform overview).

The editors of the report are Ralph de Haas and Alexander Plekhanov.

Valerijs Rezvijs provided research assistance.

The report is based on background studies funded by the EBRD Korea Trust Fund.

The writing teams for the chapters, boxes and annexes comprised:

Chapter 1

Alicia Adserà, Kieran Byrne, Alexander Plekhanov and Valerijs Rezvijs.

Chapter 2

Cevat G. Aksoy, Yvonne Giesing, Nadzeya Laurentsyeva and Elisa Wirsching.

Box 2.1 was prepared by Philip Martin;
Box 2.2 was prepared by Veronica Escudero and Stefan Kuhn;
Box 2.3 was prepared by Marko Stermsek.

Annex 2.1 was prepared by Milot Ahma, Ammar Al-Saleh and Jelena Madir;
Annex 2.2 was prepared by Elisa Wirsching;
Annexes 2.3, 2.4 and 2.5 were prepared by Cevat G. Aksoy, Yvonne Giesing, Nadzeya Laurentsyeva and Elisa Wirsching.

The authors of the chapter thank Ljubica Nedelkoska and Glenda Quintini for kindly providing data on characteristics of jobs at risk of automation.

Chapter 3

Cevat G. Aksoy, J. Michelle Brock, Francesca Dalla Pozza and Panu Poutvaara with contributions from Zalina Alborova, Sebastian Burkart, Stefan Pasch and Yoann Rennard.

Box 3.1 was prepared by Dany Bahar;
Box 3.2 was prepared by Teodora Tsankova;
Box 3.3 was prepared by Anna Katharina Raggl;
Box 3.4 was prepared by Frédéric Docquier;
Box 3.5 was prepared by Yusuf Emre Akgündüz and Huzeyfe Torun, Box 3.6 was prepared by Sergei Guriev.

Annex 3.1 was prepared by Francesca Dalla Pozza;
Annex 3.2 was prepared by Cevat G. Aksoy;
Annex 3.3 was prepared by Cevat G. Aksoy and Panu Poutvaara.

Chapter 4

Klaus Desmet, David Nagy, Djamilya Nigmatulina and Nathaniel Young, with contributions from Alexander Stepanov.

Box 4.1 was prepared by Djamilya Nigmatulina and Nathaniel Young;
Box 4.2 and Box 4.3 were prepared by Klaus Desmet, David Nagy, Djamilya Nigmatulina and Nathaniel Young.

Macroeconomic overview

Martin Hoflmayr, Alexander Plekhanov and Valerijs Rezvijs.

Structural reform

Umidjon Abdullaev and Anna Sali, with contributions from sector and regional economists and analysts.

Box S.1 was prepared by Umidjon Abdullaev and Anna Sali.

The online country assessments at tr-ebrd.com were prepared by the regional economists and analysts of the Economics, Policy and Governance Department and edited by Peter Sanfey.

Editorial, multimedia and production guidance for the Transition Report was provided by Dermot Doorly, Hannah Fenn, Cathy Goudie, Dan Kelly, Philippa Moore, Jane Ross, Natasha Treloar, Victorija Quartly, Jonathan Wells, Bryan Whitford and Anthony Williams in the EBRD Communications Department, and by Matthew Hart and Helen Valvona. The report was designed and print-managed by Blackwood Creative Ltd; www.weareblackwood.com.

The editors are indebted to Guido Friebel and Andrew Kilpatrick for helpful comments and suggestions. The report benefited from comments and feedback from the EBRD Board of Directors and their authorities, the EBRD Executive Committee, the EBRD’s Resident Offices and Country teams, and staff from the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group.

Glossary

ADB
Asian Development Bank
Amadeus
Bureau van Dijk’s Amadeus dataset
ATQ scores
“Assessment of transition qualities” scores
BEEPS
Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (conducted by the EBRD and the World Bank)
BRI
Belt and Road Initiative
CA
Central Asia
CEB
Central Europe and the Baltic states
CEPII
Centre d›Études Prospectives et d›Informations Internationales
DIFC
Dubai International Financial Centre
EBRD, the
European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
EC
European Commission
ECB
European Central Bank
EEC
Eastern Europe and the Caucasus
EFTA
European Free Trade Area
EPO
European Patent Office
EU
European Union
FDI
Foreign direct investment
FMS
The International Organization for Migration’s Flow Monitoring Surveys
FYR Macedonia
Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
GCC
Gulf Cooperation Council
GDP
Gross domestic product
G-Econ
Geographically based Economic data
GIS
Geographic information system
GVC
Global value chain
ICT
Information and communication technology
IDB
Islamic Development Bank
IFI
International financial institution
IFR
International Federation of Robotics
ILO
International Labour Organization
IMF
International Monetary Fund
IOM
International Organization for Migration
ISCO
International Standard Classification of Occupations
ISO
International Organization for Standardization
ISTAT
Italian National Institute of Statistics
KYC
Know your customer
MIPEX
Migrant Integration Policy Index
NACE
The industry standard classification system used in the European Union
NDC
Nationally determined contributions
NPL
Non-performing loan
OECD
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OeNB
Oesterreichische Nationalbank
OLS
Ordinary least squares
OPEC
Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
PIAAC
The OECD’s Programme for International Assessment of Adult Competencies
PISA
The OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment
PPP
Purchasing power parity
SEE
South-eastern Europe
SEMED
Southern and eastern Mediterranean
SMEs
Small and medium-sized enterprises
STEP
The World Bank’s Skills Towards Employability and Productivity
Transition countries
Countries where the EBRD works to foster the transition to open market-oriented economies
Transition impact
See http://www.ebrd.com/our-values/transition.html
TFP
Total factor productivity
UN
United Nations
UNCTAD
United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UN DESA
United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs
UNHCR
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees

 

Country abbreviations

For charts in this Transition Report, the abbreviations used for each economy follow the ISO 3166-1 three-letter economy codes published by the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).

Note: Terms and names used in this report to refer to geographical or other territories, political and economic groupings and units, do not constitute and should not be construed as constituting an express or implied position, endorsement, acceptance or expression of opinion by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or its members concerning the status of any country, territory, grouping and unit, or delimitation of its borders, or sovereignty.

Contact us

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Tel: +44 20 7338 6000

Other enquiries

See the Enquiries page

Office of the Chief Economist

Tel: +44 20 7338 6037
Email: economics@ebrd.com
Chief Economist: Sergei Guriev

Last updated on 13 November 2018